Polar Vortex 2025 Forecast. Based on the orientation of the ensemble pv forecasts (see figure 13b) i am inclined. The connection to our weather is through the polar vortex, which can be either strong, weak or even fully collapsed.

The weakest polar vortex years (dark green dots) occur in easterly qbo winters. For the gefsv12 forecast issued on 18 december 2024, the winds at 60 degrees north (the mean location of the polar vortex) are forecast to remain stronger than normal for at.